Can we really trust political polls to predict the outcome of an election or referendum?
The campaign for Scottish independence took a dramatic turn two weeks before polling day when a poll from YouGov showed the Yes campaign ahead for the first time. The result of the poll wiped Billions of pounds off the stock market, the pound dipped and political leaders hurriedly rushed to Edinburgh to announce sweeping new powers for the Scottish parliament.
Yet questions continue to be asked about how accurate these polls really are. The spectre of the 1992 general election, when a projected Labour poll lead of seven points became a Conservative victory, still haunts pollsters to this day.
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Source: The Drum
