By Michael Moszynski

The front page of The Times last Thursday (1 June) led with ‘Pollsters predict shock Tory crash’, sending shockwaves through Westminster and the financial markets.

The forecast in question is described by YouGov as a ‘new model’ that guesses what a large poll would show based on ‘Mulitilevel Regression and Post-stratification’ analysis which is jargon for profiling – taking what one group of potential voters say and applying it to others.

So in short it is educated guess work, but still guess work.

Referring to it as a ‘poll’, as YouGov did seven times on TV, is misleading as Read full story ›

Source: The Drum